Bitcoin Spot ETF First Week Performance Analysis

On January 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officially approved 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs. This decision is seen as promising to attract more institutional funds into the cryptocurrency market, driving up Bitcoin prices. However, within a week after the ETF launch, Bitcoin prices fell back to around $41,000, failing to achieve the significant increase expected by the market.

By analyzing the basic conditions and trading situations of various ETFs, we found the following points worth noting:

1. As of January 19, the total assets under management of 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs is approximately $26.975 billion, a decrease of 8.41% compared to January 11. Among them, Grayscale has the largest scale, reaching $23.537 billion.

2. The 8 ETFs that disclosed their holdings collectively hold 635,700 BTC, with Grayscale holding the most at approximately 567,000 BTC.

3. After the ETF opened, it generally declined until the 19th, with an average market price drop of 14.80% for 11 ETFs.

4. The price of ETFs fluctuates significantly, with an average daily price volatility of approximately 5.63% for 11 ETFs, higher than Bitcoin's 4.78% during the same period.

5. 5 ETFs are in a discount state, with the discount rate ranging from 0.27% to 0.51%. The arbitrage space based on the GBTC discount rate has further narrowed.

6. The total trading volume within 6 days of the ETF listing was approximately $16.691 billion, with GBTC having the largest trading scale at $9.012 billion.

7. After the ETF was listed, the cumulative net inflow of funds was approximately $1.208 billion over 6 days, with a net inflow of $628 million on the first day.

8. American investors are relatively optimistic about the listing of ETFs, while Asian investors are more cautious.

9. The Bitcoin market has recently shown some positive signals: increased purchasing power, heightened on-chain transaction activity, and a rise in accumulation trends.

Overall, the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF has injected new funds into the crypto market, but there is still a distance from driving a new round of "institutional bull market." The market remains confident in future price trends, and the Bitcoin halving in April is also highly anticipated. Whether a virtuous cycle can be formed between Bitcoin prices and the ETF is worth further observation.