Market Overview of BTC and ETH This Week

The cryptocurrency market has shown an overall upward trend this week.

In terms of Bitcoin, despite the appearance of large BTC transfers from a certain exchange address, it did not trigger market panic. The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes indicated a possible rate cut in September, leading to a temporary rise in BTC on Wednesday. However, the market still lacks confidence in the future, and the price subsequently fell back, ultimately showing a fluctuating upward trend.

Although Ethereum is following Bitcoin's upward trend, its rise is relatively weak. From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, there has been a capital outflow from Ethereum spot ETFs this week. Additionally, the Ethereum ecosystem lacks attractiveness, leading internal funds to shift towards other ecosystems, while external funds also show a lack of interest, resulting in weak performance for ETH.

Important Event Review

1. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, showing that most participants believe that a rate cut may be appropriate in September. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut in September, believing that the U.S. economy will not enter a recession in the short term.

2. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the number of jobs for the past year ending in March to 818,000, the largest revision in 15 years. This indicates that the job market is not as strong as previously expected, but still better than some institutional forecasts. The market believes this will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.

3. A certain exchange address transferred 13,264 BTC again, suspected of continuing to pay off. However, the market response has been tepid, and it is expected that as the remaining BTC decreases, its impact will gradually weaken.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week's market sentiment index has risen to 90%, shifting from extreme fear to extreme greed. Altcoins continue the rebound trend from last week, generally outperforming BTC and ETH. However, the trading volume is low, indicating limited capital inflow, and the sustainability of the rise is questionable. Investors are advised to pay attention to recent risks and prepare for defense.

On the rise list, tokens are scattered across multiple tracks such as DEX, POW, cross-chain, and stablecoins, without showing characteristics of sector concentration. The rises are mainly driven by positive news from each, such as the launch of new contracts or new products on a trading platform. Overall, the increase exceeds last week, continuing the trend of catch-up.

In terms of Meme coins, except for a few projects, the overall rebound strength is weaker than last week. Most Meme coins have a lower increase compared to other track tokens, making it difficult to enter the increase rankings. This shows that the craze for Meme coins is retreating, participation is decreasing, and risks are rising.

Social Media Hot Topics

This week, the most关注的 on social media is the L1 track, with most related tokens showing an upward trend and significant increases. This may be a continuation of last week's补涨, or the beginning of a new round of sector rotation, but the latter is less likely.

According to weekly return rate statistics, the AI sector performed the best, while SocialFi performed the worst. The AI sector started to rebound after a period of stagnation, but trading volume remains low, and investors should remain cautious. The SocialFi sector is mainly influenced by a leading project, while other projects performed well but have a smaller weight.

Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: Despite negative news, it is offset by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance. The market is highly cautious, and BTC purchase volume is insufficient, expecting to continue wide fluctuations next week.

2. Ethereum: Continuous outflow of funds from the spot ETF, lacking innovation and hotspots on the chain. The lack of attractiveness makes it difficult for investors to enter. It is expected to be difficult to strengthen independently in the short term and will still maintain a correlation with BTC, experiencing wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoin: Although there was a general increase this week, the trading volume of leading tokens is sluggish, which is worth noting. It is expected that the correction may end next week, fluctuating in sync with the overall market.