Market Observation and Analysis: Easing Geopolitical Situation Combined with Monetary Policy Expectations Boost Risk Appetite

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the macro environment has shown a positive shift. The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite. Crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly dipped below the 3300 dollar mark.

Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released key signals during a congressional hearing. While he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting it is more likely to wait until the September meeting to decide on a policy shift. Powell admitted that if inflationary pressures are under control, there would be a "sooner rather than later" rate cut, but the current strong economy does not warrant hasty actions. At the same time, he noted that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying a rate cut.

The market interpreted this statement as dovish. Coupled with the easing of geopolitical risks, it drove a broad rally in U.S. stocks — the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high, the Dow surged 500 points in a single day, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in sync with the dollar.

It is worth noting that Powell reiterated the independence of monetary policy in response to pressure for interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. Industry giants' observations of the energy sector show that U.S. shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional energy price fluctuation adjustment mechanism.

Regulatory Dynamics

In terms of regulation, some analysts have indicated that a certain cryptocurrency exchange platform is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks allow for T+0 settlement, lower barriers to entry, reduced costs, and 24/7 trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading sector, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms, challenging the status of traditional internet brokers.

In addition, after the new management of the SEC took office, the regulatory attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry has changed, not only withdrawing lawsuits against multiple cryptocurrency companies but also establishing a crypto task force to formulate regulations for digital assets. Analysts believe that the U.S. may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading, while providing investors with more diverse and flexible trading options.

Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin broke through $106,000 under macroeconomic benefits, but its performance is relatively restrained. A founder of a research institution stated that the 13% increase in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflow, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. According to analysts, the concentration of chips within 5% of the current spot price of Bitcoin has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience significant volatility.

From a technical analysis perspective, several analysts have given similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend. Some believe that the price may consolidate at the current level, and if it breaks through $107,000, it could aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may fall below $102,000. Other analysts believe that Bitcoin may briefly rise to $107,000 before quickly retreating to test the liquidity in the $104,000 to $105,000 range.

In terms of Ethereum, analysts have indicated that a certain trading platform experienced a large-scale withdrawal of funds on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform. This suggests that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Further analysis points out that as the capital rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant increase, as its profit supply ratio is much lower than that of Bitcoin, indicating a potential for catch-up growth.

However, some analysts hold a different view, believing that the ETH price has failed to break through the $3000 mark for more than 20 weeks in a row, which has damaged market confidence, and it faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to above $3000 in the short term. Specific technical analysis sets the upward targets for ETH at $2475 and $2565, while the support levels are around $2331 and $2155.

Market Highlights

In the market, an official public chain interacted with KOLs, leading to the emergence of a Meme coin, which saw a rapid increase in market value before experiencing a pullback. Another project attracted investor attention with the concept of "cross-Web2 and Web3 smart agents," claiming to have former members from a well-known AI company involved in its development, and employing a special token distribution mechanism.

In addition, traditional finance is accelerating its moves into the crypto space. A US stock company announced the acquisition of a certain cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, leading to a single-day stock price surge of 150%. The Hong Kong market also saw breakthrough developments, as a Chinese-funded brokerage obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage to offer mainstream coin trading services. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price, with an intraday peak increase exceeding 100%, which also boosted the stock prices of related companies.

Key Data (as of June 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume is $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector fluctuations: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD. Among them, BTC liquidations amounted to 34.3663 million USD, and ETH liquidations totaled 68.176 million USD.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (105782.52 USD), lower line (103687.82 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2485.15 USD), lower line (2435.94 USD)

ETF Flows (as of June 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$71,237,900

Today's Outlook

• A certain trading platform will open H contracts and Alpha trading.
• The Kroma L2 network will shut down on June 26, and the related tokens need to be migrated to Ethereum.
• A certain trading platform will launch a new project
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks, including Venom, AltLayer, IOTA, Velo, Blast, and Undeads Games.

Top 500 Market Cap Largest Gains

NEM (XEM) increased by 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) increased by 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) increased by 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) increased by 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) increased by 15.91%.

Hot News

• Large investors are once again increasing their short positions in ETH, with the current position value at 122 million dollars.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH, raising its total holdings to 188,478 ETH.
• Nano Labs announced a private placement of $500 million in convertible notes for BNB strategic reserves, with stock prices rising over 150%.
• ProCap invested $387 million to acquire 3,724 bitcoins
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million to purchase Bitcoin.
• Trump calls for interest rate cuts of at least 2 to 3 percentage points again.
• Celestia co-founder stated that they have over $100 million in reserves, enough to support operations for more than 6 years.
• A suspected ConsenSys-related address has purchased 3,704 ETH again, worth 8.91 million dollars.