Alts Set to Outperform Bitcoin as Fed Tightening Nears End, Says Analyst

Bullish RSI divergence forms as Others/BTC revisits key 0.11 support, signaling a potential altcoin reversal.

A break above 0.13–0.135 resistance is crucial to confirm a trend shift in altcoin dominance over Bitcoin.

Analysts expect altcoin gains if the Fed ends QT and cuts rates, possibly starting with a policy change in September.

The Federal Reserve’s latest commitment to continue its quantitative tightening (QT) program prompted an immediate sell off in altcoins. Despite this reaction, an analyst now suggests that the Fed may not sustain QT for much longer

According to TedPillows, a potential rate cut in September and the likely end of QT could change the tide. Once the Fed shifts policy, altcoins may begin to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. The outlook is supported by technical outlook in the Others/BTC ratio

The data, covering mid 2022 to mid 2025, shows a possible bottoming pattern, supported by bullish divergence in momentum indicators. Price action shows a repeated structure of bounce backs from historical lows, setting up conditions for a possible breakout.

Historical Bottom Zones Revisited After Fresh Decline

The chart identifies two previous “bottom” zones near the 0.12 and 0.11 levels. These zones marked the start of short term altcoin rallies in earlier cycles. Notably, price has returned to the 0.11 area after a sharp drop, followed by a rebound, suggesting a revisit of that support.

Local tops each time were followed by steep declines, showing a clear downward movement. However, despite the downtrend, the price is again approaching a zone that historically led to relief rallies.

This recurring pattern adds weight to the argument for a potential reversal. The pattern appears similar to earlier phases when altcoins rallied after touching key support levels.

Bullish Divergence Emerges on RSI Momentum Indicator

Further support for the bullish move comes from the RSI. The RSI, at 43.28, has formed higher lows while price made lower lows. This divergence is represented with an upward yellow arrow on the momentum panel.

Historically, the RSI climbing above 40 has coincided with altcoin recoveries. The current breach of that level may therefore carry significant implications. Previous RSI behavior suggests this level often precedes market rebounds in altcoin dominance.

With momentum flipping upward while prices hold support, technical conditions now resemble earlier bullish reversals. This aligns with past instances when altcoins began to outperform Bitcoin.

Key Resistance Levels Must Break to Confirm Trend Shift

Despite the bounce, the ratio is below the 0.13–0.135 resistance range. Breaking above this zone would confirm a potential trend shift. Previous recoveries reached levels between 0.14 and 0.15, making this range a key target.

However, the bullish setup depends on the 0.11 support holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the recovery outlook. Until then, the market is poised for a potential change in altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin.

The combination of bullish divergence, repeated support zone tests, and macro changes in Fed policy continues to support the analyst’s forecast.

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