Japan's economy is too strong! Experts estimate a more than 50% chance of a rate hike in December. Be cautious of a yen arbitrage liquidation if the US reduces rates and Japan raises them.

Japan's third-quarter GDP rose by 1.2% annualized compared to the previous quarter, higher than the 1% expected by economists, indicating that the Japanese economy was better than expected, which also gave Japan's Central Bank more confidence in the December 19 Intrerest Rate decision. In response, economists said that the probability of a rate hike in December exceeded 50%. (Synopsis: The president of Japan's Central Bank said: the time to raise interest rates is near, "USD/JPY" fell below 150, ArbitrageClose Position alarm sounded again) (Background supplement: Tokyo CPI exceeded expectations, "scared the market" yen pulled 120 points! Japan's December interest rate hike expectations heat up, beware of the ArbitrageClose Position chaos again) Japan's Cabinet Office said today (9) that Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter (as of September) rose by 1.2% annualized from the previous quarter, higher than the previous estimate of 0.9% and better than the 1% predicted by economists. And will this rise affect the upcoming (12/19) Bank of Japan Intrerest Rate decision? Economists: More than 50% probability of interest rate hike in December According to Bloomberg, the upward revision of Japan's economic growth also indirectly supports the BOJ's view that the Japanese economy will expand moderately. In addition, even the decline in net exports and capital expenditures narrowed, and inventory rises were revised upward. At next week's Super Central Bank week, the BOJ will announce the BenchmarkIntrerest Rate on December 19 (the United States will announce the Intrerest Rate policy on 12/18, which is expected to drop by one yard, and Bloomberg expects that Japan's Central Bank President Kazuo Ueda will carefully study economic data, including the December 13 Tankan survey, before making a decision. It is understood that Kazuo Ueda said in a recent interview with the Nikkei Shimbun that the next interest rate hike is approaching. Today's better-than-expected GDP data also reinforced speculation that Japan's Central Bank will raise interest rates this month. In this regard, Kodama Yuichi, an economist at the Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, said: "Today's data once again confirms that the Japanese economy is steadily recovering." He believes that Japan's Central Bank has a more than 50% chance of raising interest rates in December, but due to the recent slight appreciation of the yen, Central Bank may also delay the rate hike decision until next January. In addition, Bloomberg economist Taro Kimura also said: "After comprehensive consideration, we believe that Japan's Central Bank will see this GDP report as evidence that the economy is resilient enough to withstand further stimulus reductions." Will the yen Arbitrage trade still usher in the Close Position tide? As you may recall, the BOJ's decision to raise interest rates by 15 basis points at the end of July this year, coupled with the US Federal Reserve's readiness to cut interest rates at the time, caused the yen to soar, compressing the profit margins of the Arbitrage transaction of "borrowing low-interest yen and buying high-interest currencies" and having a large number of investors Close Position, hitting the global stock and currency markets in early August price drops. Although investors have been able to guard against potentially catastrophic consequences for some time since August, if Japan's Central Bank does decide to raise interest rates in December, it will be the second action after the rate hike in July this year, and the Close Position risk of the yen Arbitrage transaction may resurface, which may have an impact on the global capital market. On August 5, BTC once price drops to $48,900, the S&P 500 index plunged 3%, the biggest one-day drop since September 2022, and the Nikkei 225 index was a big dump of more than 12%, and the global market faced selling pressure. Related reports Japan's interest rate hike effect" zombie enterprise crash: the number of bankruptcies this year exceeded 5,000, and the debt reached 1.38 trillion yen The US election storm is coming, and the weak yen is the best safe-haven asset? Who's crazy selling US debt? Japan sold $61.9 billion in Q3, the highest in history, China reduced its holdings for three consecutive months. Has the bottom arrived? 〈Japan's economy is too strong! Experts estimate that the probability of interest rate hikes in December is more than 50%, "If the United States descends the sunrise", watch out for the yen, ArbitrageClose Position tide", this article was first published in BlockTempo "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".