Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? Don't dream about it, first look at the CPI's complexion!

94.4%? It sounds like the odds of winning the lottery read backwards, but this time it really happened—markets are betting on a rate cut in September, almost as certain as if it were written in the Bible. But don't forget, the Federal Reserve is known for being "unexpected", so don't confuse "expectation" with "fulfillment".
Don't rush, we need to clarify: the essence of lowering interest rates is to "stimulate the economy," but does the current U.S. economy really need stimulation? Q2 GDP is still stable, and consumer spending is holding up. What we should really be concerned about is that although inflation has come down, it is still not low enough, and the Federal Reserve has always emphasized that "what matters is sustainability."
Moreover, while interest rate cuts can act as a stimulant for the market, they can also be a poison. What if liquidity is released prematurely and inflation reignites? If the Federal Reserve truly cuts rates due to market pressure rather than data-driven decisions, it would indeed open "Pandora's box" of monetary policy.
So the current market trend is likely a "gamble" + "self-entertainment":
* Investors bet that the Federal Reserve fears recession and election pressure.
* Speculators trade on expectations, chase emotions, and seize popularity.
* Retail investors look confused, still asking "Should I go all in?"
The final cut: Not all 94.4% can come true, perhaps this time the Federal Reserve is just putting on a show for you, waiting for you to get involved before performing a "negative surprise." #打榜优质内容#