Analysis of the Impact of the Ethereum Shanghai Upgrade on Staking ETH Unlocking

Ethereum plans to conduct the Shanghai upgrade this March, one important aspect of which is the unlocking of staked ETH on the Beacon Chain, specifically EIP-4895. Currently, the total amount of staked ETH is approximately 15.85 million, accounting for 13% of the total supply, with 495,000 active validators and an annualized interest rate of 4.2%.

There are opinions that the unlocking of stakes may lead to significant selling pressure. However, analysis from multiple perspectives suggests that this concern may be exaggerated.

1. The unlocking of withdrawals uses a gradual release mechanism, with a daily limit of approximately 55,000 ETH, to avoid a concentrated influx into the market.

2. Early staking participants are mostly staunch supporters of Ethereum, with a low willingness to sell.

3. Some users who wish to exit have completed the exit through other means (such as Lido, CEX).

4. The unlocking feature may instead attract more institutions and large holders to participate, enhancing confidence and providing a better exit mechanism.

5. The average cost of staking ETH is not low, with a significant proportion above $1500, higher than the current market price.

6. ETH has essentially become a deflationary asset after PoS, and can earn rewards through staking, making it a fundamental asset in the ecosystem.

7. Ethereum has a strong community consensus and ecological foundation. With the development of L2, its role as the underlying settlement layer and security provider will be further enhanced.

8. The ETH staking yield is dynamically adjusted, and when the staking amount decreases, the increase in yield will attract new participants, creating a balance.

9. The Shanghai upgrade also includes other upgrades that benefit ecological development, such as reducing gas fees and supporting more complex smart contracts.

Overall, the upgrade of the withdrawal function in Shanghai has a limited impact on the selling pressure of ETH, but is beneficial for the long-term development of the Ethereum ecosystem. However, it is important to note that the price fluctuation of ETH is influenced by multiple factors and should not be judged solely based on the unlocking of stakes.

Investors should maintain independent judgment and manage risks effectively. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.