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The rise of Polymarket prediction market brings both challenges and opportunities.
Future Development and Challenges of Prediction Markets
Prediction markets as a trading platform allow users to buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of future events. By trading, users are essentially betting on the probability of a certain event occurring, and the contract prices reflect the market's judgment of the event's probability. Prediction markets aim to leverage collective intelligence to make accurate assessments of the probability of events occurring.
The most popular prediction market platform at the moment is Polymarket, which is built on Polygon. The platform allows users to place bets using traditional payment methods to purchase USDC directly, without complicated wallet operations, making it friendly to ordinary users. Polymarket has performed impressively recently, with a betting volume of $387 million in July, daily trading volumes in the millions, and over $550 million in unsettled contracts related to individual U.S. election events. The number of active users on the platform continues to grow, with weekly active users exceeding 23,000 at its peak.
The rise of Polymarket is attributed to multiple factors: the continuous emergence of hot events in 2024; the closer correlation between the crypto market and macro factors; improved infrastructure, etc. In addition, Polymarket has also made many optimizations at the product level, such as:
Despite this, Polymarket still faces some challenges:
The decline in the popularity of prediction markets after the U.S. elections is inevitable, but there is still room for development in this category:
The prediction market still has three major potentials to be tapped:
The development of Polymarket also provides insights for market participants: