Activation of ancient Bitcoin addresses triggers market Fluctuation, US macro policy supports risk assets

Recently, 8 dormant Bitcoin addresses that had been inactive for 14 years suddenly activated, causing a brief panic in the market. These addresses hold a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, which analysis suggests may belong to an independent miner from 2011. This miner had accumulated rewards from mining 180 blocks and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest holder in Bitcoin history.

The market is uneasy about the activation of these addresses, mainly because their holding cost is only $1.76/coin, and according to the current price, the unrealized gains reach as high as 61,000 times. If a large-scale sell-off occurs, it will have a huge impact on the market. Considering that the German government’s sale of nearly 50,000 Bitcoins in 2024 triggered months of market turbulence, the potential selling pressure from these 80,000 Bitcoins could have even more severe consequences.

There are various speculations in the market regarding the reasons for these "dormant" Bitcoins suddenly awakening. Some say it is due to a Chinese national who was imprisoned for illegal fundraising regaining control of their assets after being released; others believe it is because ancient miners accidentally found the hard drive where they stored their private keys. However, the most notable claim is that the main driving force behind this round of Bitcoin price increase is a certain whale acting in concert, with this activation aimed at testing market reactions and preparing for subsequent chip distribution.

From the current situation, the third possibility is more likely. On one hand, whales only transfer Bitcoin to a new Address after acquiring it, which aligns with the security management behavior of large holders; on the other hand, after the news broke, the price of Bitcoin only fell slightly, indicating that the market is not overly panicked about this.

At the same time, significant changes are taking place in the macro policy environment in the United States. The newly signed large-scale tax cuts and fiscal spending plan is expected to lead to an increase in the federal fiscal deficit of about $5 trillion, far exceeding previous policies. This expansionary fiscal policy is expected to stimulate consumption and boost the stock market in the short term.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is considering lowering the supplementary leverage ratio requirements for large banks and may exclude low-risk assets from the leverage ratio calculation. This adjustment is expected to free up about $2 trillion of balance sheet space for large banks and depress long-term Treasury yields.

The current macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be undertaken by the banking system and the stablecoin legislation, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts provide basic liquidity support. This policy loop is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and is anticipated to continue supporting risk assets to remain strong.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in the main upward trend phase, and short-term market fluctuations only trigger intraday level oscillations. With strong consensus support, the possibility of a deep adjustment in Bitcoin is low. It is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price will continue to rise, with a long-term target range of 127600-137500.