QCP Capital观点：尽管BTC长期看涨，短期入场仍需谨慎

On July 14, QCP Capital released an analysis post regarding the current state of the Bitcoin market, stating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, successfully soaring and breaking through the key price level of $122,000. This surge is partly attributed to technical breakthroughs, while the significant increase in institutional demand has also played a crucial role.

From the market sentiment indicators, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has rapidly risen from 40 to 70 in just three weeks, showing a clear shift in market sentiment from "fear" to "greed."

Meanwhile, institutional investment is even more enthusiastic, with net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeding $2 billion last week. This data clearly shows a significant increase in institutional participation, indicating that institutions are actively engaging in Bitcoin investment.

In the derivatives market, a series of data also reflects the active state of the market. Leverage long positions have increased significantly, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is approaching 30%, and the open interest has surpassed 43 billion USD, marking the first breakthrough since January of this year, further highlighting the market's enthusiasm.

However, the current price of Bitcoin has entered an unknown territory, and it is difficult to accurately predict the short-term peak. Fortunately, the options market provides some valuable clues. The implied volatility has not soared with the rise in spot prices, and although the front-end volatility has increased, it is still below last year's average level. This phenomenon reflects that the market is gradually maturing, and the Ethereum market exhibits similar characteristics.

In addition, traders may prefer to use perpetual contracts due to the higher cost of options. Data shows that the one-month risk reversal indicator is stable, while the September and December indicators show strong demand for call options, which means that investors are maintaining a bullish outlook on the long-term market while hedging short-term risks.

QCP Capital finally advises that given the current high funding rates and the profound lessons learned from the liquidation event in February this year, investors should exercise more caution. Although they are structurally optimistic about the upward trend of Bitcoin, considering the current price levels, they are more inclined to suggest that investors enter the market cautiously and wait for a market correction before making their moves.

#比特币走势 # cryptocurrency market #机构需求 # macro economy