Non-Farm Payroll Preview: The Bitcoin Market Under the Shadow of Trump's Tariffs

At 20:30 tonight (UTC+80), the United States will release the June US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Market predictions suggest that non-farm employment is expected to increase by 110,000, significantly slowing from the previous value of 139,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, reaching a new high since October 2021. The high tariff policy of the Trump administration is seen as the main reason for the weak job market, with companies cautious in hiring due to policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) in July is rising due to expected economic data, putting pressure on the dollar.

1. US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) Preview: "Hard Data" Signals of Pressure on the Job Market

The June US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to be lower than May's 139,000 and April's 177,000, with the unemployment rate likely rising from 4.2% to 4.3%. Wall Street generally anticipates that the increase in labor supply during graduation season is a short-term factor contributing to the rise in unemployment, but the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy is a deeper underlying reason.

After the Trump administration announced high tariffs on Canada, Mexico (25% tariff), and China (additional tariffs) on April 2, market sentiment has remained low. Although some tariffs were suspended for 90 days on April 9, the expiration of exemptions in July still poses long-term risks for businesses. Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, stated that if the June data meets expectations, it would confirm the drag of tariffs on the job market, with the summer unemployment rate potentially continuing to rise to 4.5%. If tariffs persist, the U.S. economy may fall into recession by 2025, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 5.3% and inflation reaching 4.4%.

If the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is below 100,000, the market will bet more firmly on the Federal Reserve (FED) cutting interest rates in July, and the US dollar index (DXY) may fall below 103, boosting assets like gold and BTC. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations (such as over 150,000), the expectations for rate cuts will weaken, and the dollar may rebound. The probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 25.3%, and tonight's non-farm data will be the key to "settling the situation."

II. July Rate Cut Prospects: The Federal Reserve's Tough Choice

The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% since December 2024, reiterating on June 18 at the FOMC meeting to "patiently wait for the data to clarify." However, Powell stated at the European Central Bank's Sintra Forum on July 2 that if CPI or PCE data further slows in the next two weeks, "the possibility of a rate cut in July cannot be ruled out." Fed Governor Waller also hinted that if employment data significantly deteriorates, a rate cut in July "is not impossible." Market analysis suggests that if June US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data falls short of expectations (such as 80,000-100,000), it will strengthen the Fed's concerns about the labor market, and the probability of a rate cut in July may rise to 50%. The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September to be more prudent, but inflation pressures caused by tariffs could force the Fed to act sooner.

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3. BTC Analysis: Bullish Trend and Short-term Adjustment Pressure

BTC has shown strong upward movement since late June, with consecutive daily closing prices in the green. On July 2 and July 3, it broke through the previous high of $109,000, confirming the uptrend. The hourly chart shows that the price is fluctuating above $109,000, with a slight pullback to $108,500 on July 3, but overall maintains a bullish pattern. The current price of BTC is $109,465, with a 24H increase of 1.69%.

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MACD: The hourly MACD histogram is gradually shortening, with the fast and slow lines approaching the zero axis, indicating weakening momentum; the daily MACD continues to expand, showing strong bullish momentum.

RSI: The hourly RSI value is 62.40, not yet entering the overbought zone but leaning towards bullish; the daily RSI remains around 70, indicating that the market is in a strong state.

EMA: On the hourly chart, EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120, showing a bullish arrangement; the daily EMA also maintains a bullish arrangement, with support concentrated in the 108400 to 107500 area.

Short-term strategy: BTC investors can pay attention to the support level at 108,400. If it breaks below, they can wait for a low buy at 107,500; if it breaks above 110,000, they can follow the trend to go long. After the release of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), it's necessary to be cautious of severe market fluctuations.

Long-term trend: The interest rate cut cycle and institutional adoption will support BTC's upward movement, but inflation and recession risks triggered by tariffs may exacerbate volatility. It is recommended to diversify allocations in gold and crypto assets to hedge against risks.

The June US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is not only a litmus test for the job market but also the first hardcore verification of the economic impact of Trump's tariff policy. If the data meets expectations or is worse, the probability of a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) in July will significantly increase, putting pressure on the US dollar and likely boosting risk assets like BTC. However, the dual risks of inflation and growth triggered by tariffs put the FED in a dilemma. Although BTC has shown strength after breaking through 109,000, short-term adjustment pressure cannot be ignored. At this critical juncture, investors need to closely monitor the NFP data and the movements of the FED, seeking opportunities amid uncertainty. As Powell said, "We will patiently wait for the data to guide our direction." The market is also holding its breath in this game.

This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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